Country selection: a simple scoring model to choose your next market

Picking the next country can feel like a bet. You do not need perfect data to make a smart decision. You need a short, honest scorecard and a plan to learn quickly. The aim is to compare markets on the same page and commit with confidence.

This guide mixes insight, trends, examples and a practical model you can run in a week. Keep it light, share it with your team, and use it again when the shortlist changes.

What good market selection looks like

Good selection reduces regret. It balances potential with practicality, and it sets you up to learn fast. The goal is a market you can enter without drama, where a small team can prove demand and unit economics within a quarter.

• A clear reason to win: a segment that values what you do and a path to reach them.
  
  
• Low avoidable friction: payment, language and service expectations you can meet.
  
  
• Signals you can see early: search, replies, trials or enquiries that arrive quickly.
  
  

Signals and trends to watch

Across Europe, people expect local language, transparent pricing and familiar payment options. Short video and scannable pages shape behaviour. Buying journeys often start with search or a trusted community, then move to creator reviews and brand pages. These habits make messaging clarity, local proof and a tidy landing flow even more important.

The upshot for selection: favour countries where your product already fits payment and service norms, your message can be made natural quickly, and you can reach the audience through channels you can run well.

Examples: consistent core, local fit

Spotify expands with a steady promise about choice and discovery, then tunes pricing cues and partnerships by country so the experience feels close to home.

IKEA enters cities with store formats and services that match local living patterns while keeping value and design steady. The learning is to protect your spine and flex the edges that remove friction.

Revolut prioritises places where payment norms and partner ecosystems support quick trust. Aligning to local habits means the same product feels native faster.

The simple scorecard

Score each country from 1 to 5 on the criteria below. Weight them lightly to reflect your model. Keep explanations short and specific. The goal is to surface trade offs, not to produce a perfect number.

• Demand signals: search terms in natural phrasing, category conversations, inbound enquiries.
  
  
• Fit to norms: payment options, price display, delivery or onboarding expectations.
  
  
• Reachability: channels you can run well in that country and partners that carry trust.
  
  
• Proof potential: nearby names, creators or publications that could validate early.
  
  
• Unit economics: likely basket or contract value vs media and service costs.
  
  
• Operational readiness: language, support hours, compliance and legal basics.
  
  

Weights that reflect reality

If you are direct-to-consumer, demand and reachability may weigh more. If you sell with conversations, proof potential and readiness matter more early. Keep the total at 100 and write your reasons.

How to gather inputs fast

You do not need long reports. Use light research that brings real language and practical constraints to the table.

• Search results and community threads to capture the words people actually use.
  
  
• A look at payment methods and price display norms on category leaders.
  
  
• Ten competitor or adjacent brand pages to note tone, proof and offers.
  
  
• Three quick conversations with people who match your audience to hear hesitations.
  
  
• A scan of platform ad tools or marketplaces to check audience reach and costs.
  
  

Worked example: three countries on one page

Imagine you are comparing Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands. Demand signals look promising in all three. Payment norms are straightforward. You can reach people through a platform you already use well. Proof potential is strongest in Ireland due to nearby names. The scorecard shows Ireland as the calmest entry with Spain close behind. You decide to lead with Ireland and line up Spain for quarter two.

From score to plan: a 90 day arc

A decision needs a plan. Use a simple arc so the team stays aligned and you learn quickly without thrash.

1. Days 1–30: publish a country page with natural phrasing, add two local proof points and run discovery in one channel.
   
2. Days 31–60: improve the winning angle, validate the landing flow and publish a mini case with a partner or creator.
   
3. Days 61–90: add a second reliable path and set monthly targets that reflect learning and quality.
   

Risks to surface early

Most market entries wobble for predictable reasons. Write them down and choose one mitigation for each so you are not surprised.

• Messaging reads like translation rather than natural phrasing.
  
  
• Payment or pricing display norms differ and reduce conversion quietly.
  
  
• Support hours and response times do not match expectations.
  
  
• Channels look busy quickly but do not lead to quality outcomes.
  
  

Governance: decisions without drama

Keep selection calm with two short rituals. They protect focus and stop scope creep.

• Weekly decisions: inputs, engagement, outcomes, one block and one decision.
  
  
• Monthly review: what we learned, what we keep, what we stop and next month’s focus.
  
  

Examples: learning travels

Zara tunes timing, imagery and delivery expectations by country while protecting pace and clarity. The repeatable operating model is what scales.

HubSpot uses the same backbone — helpful content, clear offers — then adds local cases and integrations. The lesson is to keep the system steady and adapt the edges that matter.

Team and roles

You do not need a big team. You need a clear owner and a small set of helpers who can move fast.

• Owner: keeps the scorecard honest and runs the 90 day arc.
  
  
• Editor: rewrites key lines and microcopy into natural local phrasing.
  
  
• Channel lead: runs tests and keeps budgets tidy.
  
  
• Partner lead: lines up creators or communities that fit.
  
  

Data and dashboards

Make decisions with a small, consistent view by country. Keep it the same each week so trends tell a true story.

• Inputs: assets and channels live, spend and sessions delivered.
  
  
• Engagement: engaged sessions, trials, demo requests or add-to-basket.
  
  
• Outcomes: sign ups, purchases, completion rate and early repeat.
  
  
• Trust: refunds, cancellations and support tone.
  
  

Common traps to avoid

• Chasing the biggest GDP without checking fit to norms and reachability.
  
  
• Making a complicated model no one uses. Keep it on one page.
  
  
• Launching in two countries with the same weak messaging and flow.
  
  
• Underestimating how much microcopy and payment cues affect conversion.
  
  

Quick wins for the next two weeks

• Draft the scorecard with six criteria and light weights. Fill it for two countries.
  
  
• Rewrite the promise line and first two paragraphs for your lead country.
  
  
• Add two local proof points and a simple guarantee near the button.
  
  
• Plan a discovery test and a landing tweak you can ship in a week.
  
  

FAQs

Do we need a full report? No. Capture enough to compare calmly and then learn in market. Keep notes short and specific.

What if the scorecard points to a small country? That can be a good thing. You want a place to prove the play and build a case for the next step.

How often should we revisit the decision? Monthly for the first quarter. Update the score and stick with the plan unless a strong signal says otherwise.

Local research toolkit you can run in a week

Scrappy does not mean sloppy. Use a tidy, repeatable toolkit to collect just enough evidence to move forward with confidence.

• A five interview script that starts from the problem and asks for the exact words people use.
  
  
• A swipe file of local pages, offers and price displays annotated with what helps or hinders.
  
  
• A phrase bank of the top twenty terms people use for the problem and the outcome.
  
  
• A partner map with three organisations, creators or tools that already serve your audience.
  
  

Scenario testing: best case, base case, careful case

Run three simple scenarios so leadership can see the range of outcomes. Keep the maths clean and the assumptions written down.

• Best case: strong fit, early proof and a second channel that works.
  
  
• Base case: steady learning, one channel delivering and proof by month two.
  
  
• Careful case: slower conversion, more support and extra phrasing work needed.
  
  

Governance: who signs what

Decisions move faster when everyone knows their lane. Keep sign offs light and explicit.

• Story and voice: the owner of the promise and the phrasing library.
  
  
• Compliance: claims, privacy and price display reviewed where required.
  
  
• Budget: test spend, partner fees and production agreed against the arc.
  
  

Risk register: name it, tame it

Write down the top five risks with owners and mitigations. Review weekly so they do not surprise you later.

• Language quality slips: native editor reviews first drafts and key microcopy.
  
  
• Payment option gaps: one alternative in place and a clear note on the page.
  
  
• Support load spikes: add hints in product and publish a short FAQ.
  
  
• Partner slips timeline: have a back up asset and keep dates flexible.
  
  
• Ad policies block an angle: keep a second, claim-light angle ready.
  
  

Second country: reuse with intent

When the first country is stable, the second goes faster if you reuse with care. Copy the spine, not the quirks.

• Keep the promise line and benefit structure. Rewrite phrasing with a native editor.
  
  
• Reuse assets that proved themselves. Swap proof and imagery to feel local.
  
  
• Carry the operating rhythm forward unchanged so decisions stay calm.
  
  

A closing example: compounding learning

A productivity app led with the Netherlands, then Spain. The team reused the promise and the best performing angle, rewrote copy with native editors and added local proof. They reached stable conversion faster the second time. The scorecard made the first choice calm; the rhythm made the second choice quick.

Wrap-up

A good scorecard brings clarity without bureaucracy. Protect the spine of your brand, flex the edges that remove friction and choose a country you can learn from quickly. That is how small teams expand with confidence.

TAM, SAM, SOM — a useful simplification

You do not need a full market sizing model. A simple, practical view is enough for selection. Keep it directional and tie it to reachability.

• TAM: people who experience the problem in this country.
  
  
• SAM: people you can reach with your current channels and pricing.
  
  
• SOM: people you can convert in the next 12 to 18 months given capacity.
  
  

Regulatory and compliance fit

Rules vary by country and category. Most issues are solvable with clear language and light changes, but some can slow you down. Surface these early so you choose a calm path.

• Privacy and consent language for forms and tracking.
  
  
• Display rules for pricing, tax and returns.
  
  
• Sector specific claims and comparisons that need proof.
  
  
• Licences or registrations for payments or services.
  
  

Channel viability by market

The same platform behaves differently across countries. Look at usage patterns and which formats feel natural. Choose the channel you can run consistently and well.

• Search demand: do phrases match your promise in natural language?
  
  
• Social or creator reach: are there voices already serving your audience?
  
  
• Marketplaces or directories: do buyers compare options there?
  
  
• Partners: which organisations or tools already have your audience’s trust?
  
  

Data sources you can trust for a quick view

A handful of dependable sources will get you most of the way. Keep a short list and check the same ones each time so you build pattern recognition.

• Official stats portals and industry associations for context and trendlines.
  
  
• Platform tools for search and ad estimates to gauge language and reach.
  
  
• Trusted research publishers for behaviour and expectation signals.
  
  
• Your own support, search and sales data for adjacent countries.
  
  

Mini case: picking calm over big

Consider a finance app choosing between Germany and Ireland. Germany is bigger, but payment expectations and proof needs are heavier. Ireland is smaller with a closer fit to the current product and easier partners. The team picks Ireland, proves the play and returns to Germany later with stronger proof and a clearer onboarding path. The scorecard helped them choose calm progress over noisy launches.

Workshop: decide in half a day

You can reach a decision in a morning. Keep it focused and grounded in practical evidence.

1. Bring inputs: search phrases, buyer quotes, price display examples and partner ideas.
   
2. Fill the scorecard for two or three countries and write reasons beside the numbers.
   
3. Discuss risks and mitigations openly. Pick one lead country and one follower.
   
4. Agree the 90 day arc and name owners for pages, channels and partners.
   

Scorecard template you can copy

• Demand signals (1–5).
  
  
• Fit to norms (1–5).
  
  
• Reachability (1–5).
  
  
• Proof potential (1–5).
  
  
• Unit economics (1–5).
  
  
• Operational readiness (1–5).
  
  
• Weights that reflect your model. Total 100.
  
  
• Decision notes in plain language.
  
  

Cultural considerations that shape response

Culture shows up in how direct people prefer you to be, how much context they need and how they respond to guarantees. Keep your personality steady and flex tone and microcopy so people feel respected.

• Shorter, more direct phrasing in some countries; more context led phrasing in others.
  
  
• Guarantees and reassurance lines near the button in both cases.
  
  
• Imagery and examples that look like everyday life in that country.
  
  

From selection to sequencing

Sequencing matters as much as selection. Choose an order that compounds learning and proof. Start where you can win quickly and borrow that proof for larger, harder markets.

• Lead with one calm, high fit country to refine messaging and flow.
  
  
• Follow with a country that shares language or platform habits to speed reuse.
  
  
• Plan a tougher country for quarter three with stronger proof and partners.
  
  

Finance view: sanity checks before you commit

Selection should include a quick finance view. Keep it light and directional. You want to know whether the unit economics can work with your model.

• Blended acquisition cost for the first quarter including tests and partners.
  
  
• Expected first purchase or contract value and early repeat or expansion.
  
  
• Service costs shaped by support hours, shipping or onboarding complexity.
  
  

Operational checklist by country

Turn selection into action with a small checklist. This keeps the team moving together and reduces surprises.

• Pages: promise, proof and pricing display in local phrasing.
  
  
• Payments: top local options live and tested end to end.
  
  
• Support: local hours shown and a short FAQ in local language.
  
  
• Partners: one creator or organisation lined up with a practical contribution.
  
  

Troubleshooting: if the first month is noisy

• Low engagement: rewrite headlines in natural phrasing and move proof higher.
  
  
• Clicks but poor conversion: fix price display, guarantees and onboarding microcopy.
  
  
• Good signals but high support: add hints and reduce steps in the first session.
  
  
• Tests look good in tiny segments: widen targeting and check the angle holds.
  
  

Scorecard in practice: keep it honest

Do not let the number do the thinking. The discussion around the number is what matters. Write down reasons and revisit them monthly so you learn faster and avoid reruns of old debates.

Team cadence after the decision

A steady rhythm keeps pace without stress. Small teams thrive on clarity and short, predictable meetings.

• Weekly: inputs, engagement, outcomes, one block and one decision.
  
  
• Fortnightly: retire weak tests, promote winners and refresh the library.
  
  
• Monthly: revise the scorecard and confirm the next month’s focus.