Picking your next market: a simple scorecard for founders

You don’t need perfect data to choose your next market. You need a calm way to compare options, read signals, and move with conviction. A simple scorecard helps you do that without big budgets or complex models.

Here’s a practical mix of insight, trends, real brand examples, and actions you can take this month. The aim is to reduce guesswork, de‑risk investment, and build momentum across borders.

Why a scorecard beats gut feel

Growth often stalls when decisions hinge on hunches or a single metric. A scorecard forces balance. It blends market demand, access to customers, your team’s readiness, and the operational reality of trading in that country.

Digital behaviour across Europe keeps shifting. Most people now buy online, and digital payments are normal. That makes test-and-learn market entry far more possible for lean teams. It also means you must account for local habits in search, payments and delivery to convert reliably.

The four Rs (and two guardrails)

Start with four pillars: reach, revenue, readiness, and risk. Then add two guardrails: evidence and speed. Score each pillar out of five and keep the guardrails as a pass/fail check.

• Reach: size of your addressable segment, ease of getting in front of it (search volumes, partners, media reach).
  
• Revenue: willingness to pay, typical order values or contract sizes, and pricing power in category.
  
• Readiness: your assets for that country - site localisation, sales coverage, fulfilment, support, legal setup.
  
• Risk: regulatory friction, compliance, payment and returns complexity, cultural barriers, and competition intensity.
  

Evidence guardrail: do you have live signals - traffic from that country, demo requests, reseller interest, or customer service enquiries? If not, can you generate them with a small test in two weeks?

Speed guardrail: could you run three meaningful tests within 30 days? If the answer is no, be wary of inflated scores.

Signals and trends to inform your scores

Online buying is now a mainstream habit across the EU. That broad shift supports remote validation - landing pages, ads, and partner pilots can reveal intent before you commit heavy resources.

Digital payments have become standard across Europe, with cards and wallets widely used. Payment preference still varies by country, so offering familiar options can lift conversion and trust from day one.

Cross‑border ecommerce continues to grow as shoppers seek value, selection, and faster delivery. This creates two effects: discovery of your brand from abroad before entry, and higher expectations for localisation once you arrive.

Search behaviour differs by language and culture. The terms people use for the same problem can shift drastically by market. Local keyword research and competitor scans prevent mis‑positioning and wasted spend.

Examples: how brands use structured bets

Revolut prioritised markets where card usage, app adoption, and regulatory pathways supported quick testing. That focus on speed and fit made early European expansion more efficient.

HubSpot built momentum by leaning on strong partner ecosystems and high English proficiency to accelerate content and sales enablement in Europe, then deepened localisation as signal strength grew.

You can borrow the same logic: pick countries where your existing strengths work hardest, then add local depth once the first signals are clear.

Build your scorecard in 45 minutes

Grab a spreadsheet and create rows for 6–8 countries on your radar. Add columns for the four Rs and short notes. Keep it simple; you’re aiming for clarity, not perfection.

1. List candidate countries and your quick rationale for each (e.g., inbound leads, partner asks, proximity).
   
2. Score reach, revenue, readiness, and risk from 1 to 5. Add a one‑line note for each.
   
3. Apply the two guardrails: live evidence and speed to test in 30 days.
   
4. Sort by total score, but sanity‑check by risk: remove any country that fails a guardrail.
   
5. Pick the top 1–2 countries for a 30‑day test plan (below).
   

How to score each pillar (with quick data sources)

Reach. Combine search demand with practical access. Look for steady or rising search volumes for your primary problem/solution terms. Layer in the ease of reaching your audience: relevant media channels, active communities, and partner density. If discovery requires niche channels you don’t have, reduce the score.

Revenue. Use proxy datapoints to estimate value: average order values in the category, common price points for comparable solutions, and procurement norms. Sanity‑check your current price against local benchmarks. If heavy discounting seems required to win trials, drop the score.

Readiness. Audit your assets. Do you have a localised site experience, compliant checkout, and sensible delivery or demo flow? Catalogue any gaps that would block conversion within the first week of testing.

Risk. Scan the regulatory basics, data rules, and competitive crowding. If the category is saturated with heavy spenders or compliance burdens are high, accept a lower score and plan a thinner test.

Design a 30‑day market test that fits small teams

A good test answers one question: can we acquire and convert the right customers at a cost that makes sense? Keep your scope tight and your feedback loops fast.

• Week 1 - set foundation: one localised landing page, a simple offer, and trusted payment or enquiry paths. Add clear proof (logos, reviews) that resonate locally.
  
• Week 2 - run discovery: two to three creative angles for search and social, plus a partner or marketplace listing where relevant. Measure clicks, engaged sessions, and early conversions.
  
• Week 3 - refine and localise: double down on the winning angle, adjust copy for idioms, add a local case study or review if possible, and smooth checkout or lead capture friction.
  
• Week 4 - commit or kill: scale the best channel slightly and check unit economics. If the blended CAC or payback is off, bank the learning and test the next country.
  

Localisation that actually moves numbers

Localisation is not just words. It’s the whole experience: messaging, proof, pricing cues, payments, shipping, and support. A few targeted changes can lift conversion without diluting your brand.

• Message: anchor to a universal value, then adjust phrasing to the local problem language. Keep one core story across markets.
  
• Proof: show nearby logos and plain‑spoken reviews from people like your new customers. Add one local case as soon as you can.
  
• Price: display familiar formats (incl. taxes, currency) and clarify returns and warranties. Avoid surprise fees.
  
• Pay: offer the top two or three local payment methods and reassure on security and refunds.
  
• Post‑purchase: confirm in local language, offer simple support options, and set realistic delivery or onboarding expectations.
  

Examples: keeping the core, adapting the edges

IKEA keeps a global promise on value and design while adapting store formats, delivery expectations, and product naming to local habits. The core stays stable; the edges flex to fit the market.

Spotify expands with the same product backbone but tunes pricing tiers, payment options, and local playlists to speed adoption. Familiar flows plus local relevance drive early engagement.

What good looks like: a lightweight dashboard

As you test, keep a tight view of inputs and outcomes. You don’t need complex tooling - a lean dashboard keeps everyone aligned and avoids vanity metrics.

• Inputs: channels live, spend by channel, creative angles, partner activities.
  
• Mid‑funnel: engaged sessions, demo starts, add‑to‑basket or trial starts, qualified conversations.
  
• Outcomes: first purchases or signed deals, conversion rates, CAC, early retention or repeat intent.
  

Five common mistakes to avoid

• Chasing total market size without asking how you’ll reach buyers this month.
  
• Under‑investing in proof - missing local reviews, logos, and guarantees that reduce risk for new customers.
  
• Skipping payment and delivery localisation, which silently kills conversion.
  
• Launching too many channels at once, making learnings slow and noisy.
  
• Equating translation with localisation - words change, but context sells.
  

Quick actions for the next two weeks

• Create your 4R scorecard for 6–8 countries and set two guardrails: evidence and speed.
  
• Spin up one localised landing page and one offer per top country. Add trustworthy payment or enquiry paths.
  
• Run two to three creative angles across paid search and one social channel. Measure engaged sessions and first conversions.
  
• Hold a 30‑minute weekly review to decide: scale, tweak, or kill. Capture one learning per week, per market.
  

Faqs: practical questions founders ask

How different should pricing be by country? Start with parity if your value is universal, then test modest adjustments that reflect taxes, delivery, and local willingness to pay. Watch refund and repeat rates alongside conversion.

Do we need a full local team before launch? No. Prove demand and early unit economics first. Use fractional support - copy, media, partnerships - and scale people as the signal strengthens.

What if we already get traffic from a country organically? Treat it as a strong evidence signal. Prioritise that country for testing and remove obvious friction (language, payments, proof) to convert existing interest.

Wrap‑up

Pick markets with structure, not stress. Use a simple scorecard, watch the right signals, and adapt lightly to local norms. That’s how you learn faster, spend wiser, and grow with confidence.